Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +5.3% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +7.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -0.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.20% | 11.10% | 7.82% | -4.33% | 4.32% | 2.61% | -6.26% | -7.13% | -3.98% | 3.91% | ||
| 2025 | 5.01% | 19.19% | -0.58% | 0.64% | 8.09% | 4.94% | 3.07% | 23.53% | 0.37% | -15.77% | -6.12% | 1.60% |
| 2024 | 1.58% | -9.95% | -2.88% | 9.73% | -7.26% | 2.40% | 9.99% | -12.42% | 1.32% | -4.92% | 8.02% | -9.74% |
| 2023 | 3.44% | 9.45% | -4.70% | 6.16% | -10.01% | 4.43% | 6.34% | 5.70% | -9.61% | 5.79% | -12.60% | 5.51% |
| 2022 | 5.67% | -13.65% | 13.17% | -5.70% | -1.77% | -8.26% | 7.35% | -14.72% | -10.13% | -2.18% | 26.00% | -3.09% |
| 2021 | -11.45% | 5.56% | 9.38% | -0.98% | -6.24% | -2.61% | -3.96% | 11.37% | -5.84% | 4.82% | 4.71% | 4.22% |
| 2020 | -13.66% | 14.89% | 0.82% | 2.57% | 8.71% | 3.33% | -1.49% | -5.93% | -10.64% | 9.11% | 7.24% | |
| Avg | 0.91% | 1.15% | 5.30% | 0.90% | -1.47% | 1.74% | 2.84% | 0.69% | -4.83% | -3.82% | 4.85% | 0.96% |
MFI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MFI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MFI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MFI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes