Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.07% | -5.43% | -1.34% | 11.46% | -0.36% | 9.08% | 8.24% | -4.79% | 3.15% | 2.23% | ||
| 2025 | -1.59% | 3.68% | 0.56% | -5.78% | 4.47% | -0.37% | -1.54% | -0.41% | 2.63% | 4.68% | 9.96% | 0.75% |
| 2024 | 1.50% | 9.72% | 5.03% | -5.08% | 11.47% | 2.91% | 0.96% | 2.32% | 7.42% | 1.75% | 11.80% | -2.02% |
| 2023 | 9.03% | 3.89% | -8.08% | 7.86% | -4.65% | -0.44% | 5.27% | -3.79% | -0.64% | -2.74% | 11.65% | 10.16% |
| 2022 | 9.79% | -1.78% | 3.82% | -5.78% | -5.33% | -4.74% | 5.02% | -1.73% | -4.58% | 4.15% | 8.83% | -0.33% |
| 2021 | 2.03% | 11.03% | 6.54% | -0.70% | -4.83% | -3.44% | -1.15% | 3.00% | -0.77% | -1.11% | -3.94% | 5.56% |
| 2020 | -11.53% | -21.68% | -0.79% | -0.73% | 8.01% | -2.82% | 8.68% | -3.74% | -2.48% | 24.13% | 2.35% | |
| Avg | 4.14% | 1.37% | -2.16% | 0.17% | 0.01% | 1.57% | 2.00% | 0.47% | 0.49% | 0.71% | 10.41% | 2.74% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.2% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.3% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
MFC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MFC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MFC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MFC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes