Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jun is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jun averages +7.9% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +58.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.42% | 17.68% | -13.93% | 19.11% | 30.45% | 4.66% | 1.46% | -3.43% | -0.78% | -1.03% | ||
| 2025 | -4.17% | 3.94% | 28.41% | 5.84% | 27.13% | 11.94% | -11.50% | -6.67% | 2.94% | 5.32% | -4.18% | 12.49% |
| 2024 | -3.82% | 5.96% | -0.08% | -0.63% | 1.01% | 2.05% | 16.95% | -0.53% | -1.64% | 12.27% | 3.16% | -6.19% |
| 2023 | -8.00% | 2.17% | -19.95% | -4.67% | 7.69% | 8.64% | -3.48% | -10.43% | 5.50% | -3.17% | 7.36% | -0.04% |
| 2022 | 0.70% | 0.70% | -1.43% | -0.51% | -23.98% | 1.85% | -3.20% | 2.48% | -6.64% | 2.03% | 3.97% | 36.88% |
| 2021 | 2.74% | 8.32% | 6.74% | 2.71% | -1.04% | 0.61% | -2.11% | 3.03% | -2.54% | 4.23% | -11.04% | 6.74% |
| 2020 | -18.82% | -41.86% | -1.54% | -9.05% | 25.51% | -7.62% | 8.85% | -4.75% | -2.93% | 42.75% | -6.16% | |
| Avg | -0.02% | 2.85% | -6.02% | 2.90% | 4.60% | 7.89% | -1.35% | -0.96% | -1.13% | 2.96% | 7.00% | 7.29% |
MAL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MAL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MAL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MAL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes