Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +11.8% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -8.1% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +7.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -25.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.98% | 28.57% | -15.91% | -1.31% | 17.52% | -29.25% | -11.13% | 37.14% | -13.05% | -22.51% | ||
| 2025 | 28.00% | -3.13% | 12.90% | 2.86% | 2.78% | -5.41% | 22.86% | -16.28% | 16.67% | -4.76% | 7.50% | 23.26% |
| 2024 | 3.13% | -15.15% | 10.71% | 0.00% | 25.81% | -23.08% | -6.67% | -10.71% | 28.00% | 18.75% | -21.05% | -16.67% |
| 2023 | -11.36% | -2.56% | 5.26% | 5.00% | -23.81% | -3.13% | 6.45% | -6.06% | -6.45% | -3.45% | 28.57% | -11.11% |
| 2022 | -7.41% | 4.00% | 17.31% | 4.92% | -9.38% | -15.52% | 2.04% | 0.00% | -4.00% | -18.75% | 15.38% | -2.22% |
| 2021 | -11.76% | -11.67% | 22.64% | 0.00% | 7.69% | -8.57% | 0.00% | -1.56% | -20.63% | 4.00% | 3.85% | 0.00% |
| 2020 | -10.71% | -4.00% | 70.83% | 4.88% | 27.91% | 10.91% | 18.03% | -6.94% | 1.49% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Avg | 1.26% | -1.52% | 6.99% | 11.76% | 3.64% | -8.15% | 3.49% | 2.94% | -0.92% | -0.45% | 5.71% | -1.12% |
MAI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MAI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MAI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
MAI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data