Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +10.3% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -46.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.47% | 25.95% | -16.21% | -14.13% | 0.83% | -10.37% | 2.59% | 25.76% | -10.21% | -3.12% | ||
| 2025 | 17.42% | 10.72% | 13.00% | 26.19% | 19.01% | 9.43% | -10.81% | 31.69% | 8.03% | 5.74% | 23.51% | -2.19% |
| 2024 | -4.11% | -0.32% | 21.36% | -1.73% | 7.59% | 1.12% | 18.26% | 13.26% | 9.17% | 15.11% | -3.30% | -5.08% |
| 2023 | 16.40% | -8.44% | 13.07% | 8.87% | 0.12% | -7.09% | 11.55% | -8.37% | -5.02% | 9.64% | -2.51% | 2.32% |
| 2022 | -11.71% | 11.09% | 2.25% | -0.96% | -4.54% | -6.48% | -7.47% | 5.52% | 9.46% | 2.50% | 34.86% | -0.30% |
| 2021 | -6.40% | 0.29% | -4.09% | 21.14% | 1.17% | -13.68% | 8.65% | 1.50% | -17.51% | 19.64% | -8.12% | 0.10% |
| 2020 | -1.33% | -24.64% | 32.44% | 20.06% | 2.33% | -6.36% | -6.87% | 8.91% | -8.26% | 3.60% | -4.96% | |
| Avg | 0.19% | 5.42% | 0.68% | 10.26% | 6.32% | -3.53% | 2.34% | 8.93% | 0.40% | 7.40% | 8.01% | -1.69% |
LUG.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LUG.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
LUG.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LUG.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes