Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +7.0% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.1% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -32.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
LIF.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.17% | 5.76% | -5.10% | -3.17% | 2.11% | -2.73% | -4.12% | -1.01% | -8.82% | -14.34% | ||
| 2025 | 5.46% | -1.90% | -0.03% | 1.50% | -3.01% | -0.96% | -6.10% | 0.79% | 6.03% | 3.06% | 3.11% | 1.27% |
| 2024 | 3.48% | -8.36% | -3.05% | 4.12% | 0.43% | -0.04% | 5.43% | -1.08% | 8.23% | -5.29% | -2.63% | 0.09% |
| 2023 | 16.23% | -6.92% | -10.51% | -4.53% | -1.08% | 5.01% | 1.87% | -0.79% | 5.40% | -5.13% | 3.08% | 2.87% |
| 2022 | 4.32% | 19.59% | -9.21% | -17.26% | -7.83% | -8.87% | -0.18% | 3.14% | 2.49% | -2.32% | 20.47% | 0.72% |
| 2021 | -2.33% | 14.51% | 4.34% | 13.48% | 8.12% | 7.15% | 5.62% | -11.25% | -15.61% | 1.73% | 1.23% | 6.59% |
| 2020 | -7.63% | -11.86% | 17.43% | 13.53% | 10.39% | 5.73% | 6.74% | -4.55% | -4.67% | 7.35% | 30.66% | |
| Avg | 4.33% | 2.15% | -5.06% | 1.65% | 1.75% | 1.42% | 1.18% | -0.49% | -0.98% | -2.10% | 5.44% | 7.04% |
LIF.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LIF.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LIF.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes