Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.26% | 3.18% | 0.54% | -1.26% | -1.52% | 4.58% | 2.28% | -7.86% | 2.83% | 10.40% | ||
| 2025 | -3.80% | 4.09% | 6.75% | 10.98% | 3.45% | -2.47% | -0.52% | 0.13% | -3.79% | 3.55% | 11.23% | 0.31% |
| 2024 | 4.73% | 7.66% | 4.08% | 0.57% | 4.86% | 0.58% | 7.28% | 3.31% | 2.68% | -2.24% | 3.22% | 4.39% |
| 2023 | -0.43% | -2.17% | 6.00% | 3.46% | -6.86% | 2.57% | -3.53% | 0.28% | -1.27% | -1.72% | 3.16% | 10.03% |
| 2022 | -5.37% | 0.82% | 13.82% | 4.75% | -0.70% | -0.16% | 0.41% | -0.43% | -5.43% | 2.05% | 8.76% | -1.06% |
| 2021 | -1.69% | -0.68% | 15.05% | -2.78% | 8.09% | 3.87% | 10.63% | 5.32% | -1.81% | 7.09% | 3.46% | 8.02% |
| 2020 | -3.96% | 9.62% | -5.58% | -0.50% | -2.54% | 5.11% | -2.99% | 3.92% | -4.89% | -3.20% | -1.66% | |
| Avg | -1.30% | 1.28% | 7.98% | 1.45% | 0.98% | 0.92% | 3.10% | -0.32% | -0.41% | 0.64% | 4.44% | 3.34% |
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +8.0% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -1.3% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +8.0% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -7.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
L.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
L.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
L.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
L.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes