Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +11.1% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -5.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +13.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +8.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -32.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.92% | 17.58% | -15.55% | -3.24% | 1.92% | -19.82% | -3.75% | 31.49% | -19.18% | -8.83% | ||
| 2025 | 22.62% | -5.31% | 17.28% | 12.24% | -0.24% | 5.03% | 4.18% | 29.70% | 20.31% | -5.56% | 20.88% | -1.83% |
| 2024 | -7.61% | -10.39% | 25.86% | 6.86% | 25.13% | 2.89% | 10.18% | -2.63% | 4.02% | 10.89% | -2.12% | -2.63% |
| 2023 | 12.14% | -18.58% | 27.23% | 7.39% | -5.69% | -1.25% | 3.96% | 5.08% | -9.77% | 16.96% | 11.07% | 0.25% |
| 2022 | -6.40% | -8.01% | 16.77% | -11.58% | -12.48% | -18.82% | -4.15% | -0.97% | 20.65% | -5.00% | 13.40% | -0.72% |
| 2021 | -4.39% | -11.42% | 6.33% | 3.35% | 12.49% | -18.92% | 3.94% | -6.63% | -10.54% | 9.57% | 2.39% | -3.17% |
| 2020 | 0.60% | -16.30% | 62.65% | -2.61% | 9.50% | 27.55% | -7.36% | 1.47% | -9.47% | -12.37% | 0.97% | |
| Avg | 4.55% | -5.08% | 8.80% | 11.10% | 2.65% | -5.91% | 5.99% | 6.95% | 0.99% | 2.90% | 5.54% | -1.19% |
K.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
K.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
K.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
K.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes