Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +20.9% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -3.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +34.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +34.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -48.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
JOY.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.75% | 17.77% | 32.60% | 5.87% | -4.33% | -25.91% | 10.02% | 30.44% | -14.48% | 14.94% | ||
| 2025 | 9.52% | -17.87% | 6.47% | -26.52% | 24.81% | 14.46% | 27.37% | 21.49% | 10.54% | 18.77% | 2.07% | -19.29% |
| 2024 | -1.30% | -2.36% | -10.48% | 8.41% | -4.71% | -11.05% | 1.31% | -20.00% | -0.40% | -12.96% | -0.47% | -11.68% |
| 2023 | -6.78% | 18.86% | -0.83% | 0.67% | -11.26% | 2.05% | 11.52% | -7.70% | -3.37% | -8.46% | -18.27% | -5.16% |
| 2022 | 50.37% | -1.72% | 60.90% | -25.23% | 50.63% | -34.72% | 19.92% | 4.42% | -20.30% | 28.45% | -4.46% | -5.54% |
| 2021 | 21.74% | 25.00% | 120.00% | 11.69% | 4.65% | 72.22% | -13.55% | -15.67% | 31.86% | 13.42% | -4.73% | 67.70% |
| 2020 | -39.66% | -62.14% | 66.04% | 6.82% | -11.70% | -15.66% | -37.14% | -13.64% | -26.32% | 78.57% | -8.00% | |
| Avg | 13.88% | 0.00% | 20.93% | 5.85% | 9.52% | 0.77% | 5.85% | -3.45% | -1.40% | 2.15% | 8.78% | 3.01% |
JOY.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
JOY.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
JOY.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes