Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +8.8% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -4.3% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +15.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +15.1% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +32.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
IMO.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.01% | 15.98% | 14.81% | -0.14% | -10.11% | -2.15% | 14.12% | 0.21% | -3.46% | 7.84% | ||
| 2025 | 9.12% | 1.47% | 6.78% | -10.54% | 5.37% | 11.20% | 6.79% | 7.87% | 1.86% | -1.70% | 12.62% | -14.65% |
| 2024 | 2.74% | 9.50% | 10.80% | 1.31% | 1.74% | -2.53% | 6.04% | 2.62% | -5.68% | 9.20% | -0.20% | -14.06% |
| 2023 | 10.27% | -7.19% | 2.49% | 0.48% | -10.77% | 10.90% | 4.81% | 8.71% | 9.03% | -5.53% | -2.64% | -1.27% |
| 2022 | 14.01% | 9.38% | 6.98% | 6.91% | 7.11% | -11.98% | 1.14% | 5.04% | -6.72% | 23.91% | 3.27% | -13.33% |
| 2021 | 0.70% | 14.63% | 10.01% | 16.62% | 14.39% | -6.36% | -9.53% | -2.31% | 20.87% | 4.67% | 0.79% | 8.72% |
| 2020 | -6.34% | -45.46% | 41.36% | -4.36% | 2.52% | -4.08% | 2.67% | -25.11% | 11.17% | 26.86% | 8.52% | |
| Avg | 8.81% | 5.35% | 0.92% | 8.00% | 0.48% | 0.23% | 2.76% | 3.54% | -1.32% | 6.95% | 6.78% | -4.35% |
IMO.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IMO.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IMO.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes