Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +13.3% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -5.5% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +13.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.3% historically, with January alone posting a 40% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.93% | 31.94% | -25.96% | -2.84% | 9.76% | -8.44% | -11.65% | 37.91% | -5.98% | -12.29% | ||
| 2025 | 20.29% | 33.73% | -23.42% | 1.18% | -17.44% | 18.31% | -9.52% | 44.74% | 20.91% | 0.75% | 20.15% | 25.47% |
| 2024 | -6.87% | -21.20% | 4.09% | -7.87% | -9.15% | -3.36% | 2.08% | -4.08% | 11.35% | -7.01% | -40.41% | -20.69% |
| 2023 | -5.56% | -12.89% | 5.79% | 3.34% | -13.24% | 1.02% | -10.07% | 0.37% | -23.79% | -6.83% | 14.14% | 6.88% |
| 2022 | -13.92% | 3.38% | 25.09% | -2.03% | -8.90% | -24.43% | 4.74% | -3.29% | 3.83% | -6.56% | 67.54% | -1.05% |
| 2021 | 5.69% | -3.46% | 4.38% | 4.20% | 13.92% | -3.86% | -11.37% | 16.60% | ||||
| Avg | 0.18% | 7.00% | -2.88% | -1.64% | -5.55% | -3.39% | -3.34% | 13.31% | 3.37% | -4.70% | 10.01% | 5.44% |
IAU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IAU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IAU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IAU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes