Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +50.2% with a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -12.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +71.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -26.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
HMMC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.34% | 18.43% | -10.61% | -19.11% | 21.90% | -17.66% | -3.61% | 51.57% | -20.13% | -16.91% | ||
| 2025 | -51.85% | 23.08% | 6.25% | -8.82% | 38.71% | 81.40% | -15.38% | 103.03% | 22.39% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 321.14% |
| 2024 | 38.10% | -25.86% | 16.28% | -32.00% | 8.82% | -2.70% | 0.00% | -16.67% | 0.00% | -3.33% | 86.21% | 0.00% |
| 2023 | -93.53% | -7.22% | -64.44% | 0.00% | 12.50% | 44.44% | -3.85% | -52.00% | 191.67% | -27.14% | -17.65% | 0.00% |
| 2022 | 0.00% | 25.00% | -20.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -25.00% | 0.00% | 33.33% | 25.00% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | 50.00% | -33.33% | 25.00% | -20.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -25.00% | 33.33% | 25.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -20.00% |
| 2020 | -50.00% | -40.00% | 0.00% | 33.33% | -25.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.33% | 0.00% | |
| Avg | -6.49% | -7.13% | -12.50% | -11.42% | 16.47% | 11.50% | -6.83% | 13.47% | 31.27% | 0.48% | 21.15% | 50.19% |
HMMC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HMMC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HMMC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes