Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +9.0% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -0.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +17.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +15.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +103.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.54% | 11.44% | -9.57% | 27.28% | 42.25% | -14.20% | 40.43% | 13.92% | 11.39% | -9.83% | ||
| 2025 | -10.87% | -3.21% | -6.30% | 1.18% | 8.77% | 8.71% | 1.98% | -11.07% | 7.99% | 13.68% | 1.60% | -1.67% |
| 2024 | 40.17% | 15.42% | -12.83% | 2.00% | -12.43% | -5.73% | 2.58% | -4.63% | -6.13% | 8.11% | 8.85% | 0.38% |
| 2023 | 16.26% | 10.44% | 17.77% | -2.42% | 0.00% | -0.83% | 1.67% | 30.00% | 13.29% | 13.74% | -20.83% | 1.61% |
| 2022 | -0.27% | 6.89% | 4.39% | -2.74% | 4.35% | -10.29% | 0.27% | 13.92% | -5.78% | 7.42% | 5.24% | -6.79% |
| 2021 | 0.94% | 11.63% | 44.35% | 18.90% | -12.71% | 8.96% | -1.03% | 2.88% | -3.55% | 3.68% | -5.58% | -2.15% |
| 2020 | -4.32% | -18.77% | 7.04% | 3.95% | 6.96% | -2.37% | 18.18% | -2.59% | -3.19% | 13.19% | 3.40% | |
| Avg | 6.11% | 6.90% | 2.72% | 7.32% | 4.88% | -0.92% | 6.22% | 9.03% | 2.09% | 7.24% | 0.41% | -0.87% |
HMM-A.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HMM-A.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HMM-A.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HMM-A.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes