Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +15.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +21.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +10.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.35% | 19.84% | -24.61% | 7.86% | 28.29% | -16.90% | -5.02% | 24.71% | -4.08% | -19.14% | ||
| 2025 | 2.74% | -14.27% | 6.34% | -8.07% | 21.93% | 18.15% | -11.00% | 28.15% | 27.99% | 6.64% | 5.92% | 14.45% |
| 2024 | 2.47% | 6.96% | 18.79% | 22.26% | 14.75% | -6.92% | -6.95% | -4.51% | 13.19% | 0.40% | 0.00% | -6.65% |
| 2023 | 13.01% | -12.42% | 4.87% | -4.23% | -14.43% | 9.29% | 23.78% | -14.38% | -1.64% | -8.47% | 1.82% | 18.34% |
| 2022 | -0.33% | 13.14% | -4.85% | -16.19% | -12.03% | -27.49% | -6.10% | 17.65% | -3.97% | -7.01% | 46.81% | -9.88% |
| 2021 | -18.29% | 25.14% | -5.49% | 6.74% | -1.20% | -9.04% | 8.00% | -13.36% | 2.46% | 9.24% | -0.12% | 6.26% |
| 2020 | -19.46% | -18.38% | 27.82% | 10.00% | 9.89% | 2.43% | 38.95% | -3.60% | 6.75% | 36.77% | 8.39% | |
| Avg | 2.99% | 2.71% | -3.33% | 5.17% | 6.76% | -3.29% | 0.74% | 11.03% | 4.34% | 1.26% | 15.20% | 5.15% |
HBM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HBM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HBM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HBM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes