Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.4% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -1.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -5.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.48% | 8.90% | -1.44% | 1.58% | -2.84% | 3.83% | -0.17% | -8.63% | -4.33% | 7.38% | ||
| 2025 | 2.15% | 2.48% | 5.11% | 9.61% | -4.73% | -2.23% | -0.14% | 2.06% | -0.05% | 4.19% | 5.82% | 0.46% |
| 2024 | 0.50% | 1.38% | -1.65% | -2.38% | 1.82% | 2.30% | 8.58% | 5.87% | 3.03% | -4.37% | 2.14% | -2.65% |
| 2023 | 0.30% | -2.67% | 9.51% | 3.12% | -2.50% | -1.41% | -1.72% | -5.59% | -0.72% | 3.99% | 4.89% | 6.05% |
| 2022 | -0.21% | -4.69% | 8.49% | 3.12% | 1.58% | -1.10% | 3.29% | -0.53% | -4.26% | 1.12% | 10.13% | -2.87% |
| 2021 | 3.42% | -8.81% | 9.28% | 0.68% | 4.14% | -1.53% | 2.80% | 1.95% | -3.85% | -1.24% | 5.61% | 6.27% |
| 2020 | 0.15% | -5.09% | -0.39% | 5.71% | -3.38% | 11.79% | -5.40% | 5.51% | 3.15% | 4.09% | -4.62% | |
| Avg | 0.78% | -0.47% | 3.46% | 2.19% | 0.45% | -0.50% | 3.49% | -1.47% | -0.67% | 1.14% | 5.45% | 0.44% |
H.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
H.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
H.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
H.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes