Seasonality
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Seasonality
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GFL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -2.4% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.1% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +1.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.76% | 3.06% | -3.73% | -6.05% | -15.12% | 12.73% | 11.05% | 1.16% | 1.54% | 7.26% | ||
| 2025 | -2.12% | 4.19% | 6.40% | -1.00% | 0.83% | -0.89% | 1.55% | -1.55% | -3.99% | -7.00% | 3.69% | -7.27% |
| 2024 | -0.03% | 7.11% | -4.54% | -5.91% | -2.32% | 24.17% | 0.58% | 9.02% | -7.62% | 8.01% | 14.01% | -3.51% |
| 2023 | 3.88% | 1.02% | 12.34% | 5.64% | -0.43% | 4.98% | -12.43% | -2.75% | -1.51% | -7.33% | -2.53% | 17.39% |
| 2022 | -12.66% | -11.25% | 9.71% | -4.79% | -0.26% | -14.09% | 6.93% | 4.40% | -5.65% | 5.38% | 6.06% | 1.38% |
| 2021 | -2.66% | 9.42% | 11.14% | -7.72% | -3.58% | 1.46% | 9.73% | 2.28% | 5.94% | 8.10% | -3.26% | -2.84% |
| 2020 | 11.10% | 10.43% | -4.50% | 13.36% | -17.87% | 19.35% | -9.71% | 38.55% | 4.83% | |||
| Avg | -2.39% | 2.26% | 5.22% | -1.25% | -1.49% | 3.41% | 4.40% | -0.76% | 1.15% | -0.43% | 9.42% | 1.66% |
GFL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GFL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GFL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes