Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +11.2% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -6.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +20.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.5% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +3.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.97% | 39.94% | -25.80% | -5.28% | 5.57% | -13.30% | -1.50% | 41.66% | -4.36% | -18.44% | ||
| 2025 | 19.29% | -15.08% | 40.00% | -1.71% | -6.63% | 10.96% | 0.34% | 18.46% | 17.66% | -6.98% | 21.92% | -4.81% |
| 2024 | -19.61% | -10.00% | 36.31% | 24.25% | 36.64% | -21.66% | -0.60% | -6.62% | 1.29% | 10.17% | -2.60% | -8.59% |
| 2023 | 0.98% | -13.81% | 16.25% | -1.36% | -11.42% | -4.22% | 9.05% | -10.64% | -11.90% | 5.14% | 35.22% | -3.04% |
| 2022 | -12.55% | 9.49% | 0.42% | -5.47% | -7.13% | -12.23% | 0.27% | -17.17% | 13.82% | 9.54% | 32.45% | 1.39% |
| 2021 | -5.45% | -3.24% | -14.84% | -9.20% | 13.78% | -17.93% | -14.18% | -6.58% | -10.11% | 20.48% | -25.83% | 11.01% |
| 2020 | -24.28% | -17.56% | 29.01% | 47.85% | 11.65% | 30.00% | 5.91% | -10.84% | 4.01% | -6.13% | 26.48% | |
| Avg | -3.05% | -2.43% | 4.97% | 4.32% | 11.24% | -6.68% | 3.34% | 3.58% | -0.64% | 7.06% | 9.17% | 3.74% |
FVI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FVI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FVI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FVI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes