Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.59% | 6.11% | -18.56% | 0.00% | 27.60% | -8.72% | 0.31% | 18.63% | -17.07% | -12.53% | ||
| 2025 | -1.83% | -1.32% | 7.80% | -4.34% | 9.83% | 18.99% | -3.72% | 3.35% | 30.79% | -7.50% | 9.34% | 15.58% |
| 2024 | 12.44% | 5.33% | 13.31% | 20.05% | 0.17% | 2.63% | -5.95% | 0.41% | 8.66% | -2.44% | 6.34% | -3.14% |
| 2023 | 9.12% | -3.43% | 4.23% | 6.35% | -13.61% | 10.20% | 24.79% | -6.96% | -11.60% | -49.92% | -30.86% | -2.34% |
| 2022 | 3.44% | 18.72% | 16.44% | -14.89% | -0.57% | -33.32% | -4.18% | -0.08% | 0.90% | 2.47% | 33.08% | -11.54% |
| 2021 | -6.78% | 28.78% | -12.69% | 18.31% | 4.84% | -3.80% | -6.48% | -1.63% | -10.77% | 24.95% | -7.06% | 11.16% |
| 2020 | -4.25% | -27.52% | 18.30% | -5.06% | 34.08% | 4.62% | 14.09% | -8.06% | 28.98% | 20.38% | 23.98% | |
| Avg | 3.50% | 7.13% | -2.43% | 6.25% | 3.31% | 2.86% | 1.34% | 3.97% | -1.02% | -0.58% | 5.20% | 5.62% |
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +7.1% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.4% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +12.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +8.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -21.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
FM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes