Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.21% | 3.34% | -9.07% | 9.72% | 0.51% | 3.39% | 1.09% | 2.70% | -5.32% | 0.89% | ||
| 2025 | 10.49% | 1.75% | -5.56% | 0.29% | 6.51% | 2.37% | 1.13% | -1.65% | -6.71% | -1.45% | -2.76% | 4.60% |
| 2024 | -1.45% | -4.21% | 4.04% | -0.74% | -3.51% | 0.35% | -0.35% | 1.26% | 4.07% | -2.79% | 2.87% | 6.24% |
| 2023 | 7.57% | -0.83% | 3.51% | -4.13% | 0.38% | 7.36% | 1.71% | -5.61% | -2.97% | -6.59% | 9.27% | 14.11% |
| 2022 | -5.63% | -3.28% | 6.78% | -2.20% | -6.41% | -4.80% | -0.56% | -5.63% | -5.67% | -1.27% | 30.77% | 0.33% |
| 2021 | 10.42% | 15.19% | 1.88% | -2.97% | 2.73% | 8.87% | -2.22% | 8.94% | -8.90% | -0.76% | -7.31% | 4.65% |
| 2020 | -4.37% | -43.53% | 18.32% | -4.52% | 13.51% | -5.71% | -3.16% | -10.82% | 11.84% | 19.87% | 4.69% | |
| Avg | 3.37% | 1.08% | -5.99% | 2.61% | -0.61% | 4.44% | -0.70% | -0.45% | -5.19% | -0.17% | 8.78% | 5.77% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.0% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
FIH-U.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FIH-U.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FIH-U.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FIH-U.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes