Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +14.0% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -1.2% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +15.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.81% | 14.82% | -0.81% | 14.07% | 8.32% | 8.28% | 1.29% | -13.69% | -2.38% | -6.98% | ||
| 2025 | -2.26% | 20.32% | 4.28% | 7.31% | 4.87% | -1.71% | -12.50% | 5.94% | 14.53% | 8.29% | 28.21% | 4.10% |
| 2024 | -2.20% | -3.96% | 13.46% | -4.46% | 3.04% | -2.02% | 9.82% | 9.99% | 9.94% | -2.53% | 15.87% | 0.48% |
| 2023 | 2.91% | -2.09% | -1.37% | 1.72% | 10.36% | 0.99% | 1.82% | -10.11% | -5.27% | -2.79% | 19.62% | 5.02% |
| 2022 | 0.02% | 6.35% | 2.73% | -6.89% | -0.42% | -4.17% | 10.50% | -4.11% | -5.00% | 3.83% | -2.84% | -2.51% |
| 2021 | -6.92% | 8.80% | 16.57% | 1.95% | 4.36% | 5.42% | -2.24% | -1.21% | -9.36% | -0.81% | -8.46% | 11.39% |
| 2020 | -5.37% | -24.88% | 7.24% | -8.94% | 1.44% | 0.89% | 4.45% | -7.88% | -3.57% | 31.54% | 0.15% | |
| Avg | 0.06% | 5.55% | 1.43% | 2.99% | 3.08% | 1.18% | 1.37% | -1.25% | -0.77% | 0.40% | 13.99% | 3.11% |
EXE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EXE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EXE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EXE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes