Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +13.4% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +22.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -48.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.42% | 10.31% | -29.62% | -5.28% | 6.76% | -16.77% | 2.28% | 21.19% | -8.44% | -8.88% | ||
| 2025 | 5.36% | 15.25% | 11.76% | 14.47% | 18.39% | -14.56% | 2.27% | 42.22% | 34.51% | -20.72% | -7.57% | 8.98% |
| 2024 | -13.89% | 12.90% | 17.14% | 0.00% | 21.95% | -18.00% | 7.32% | 6.82% | 34.04% | 6.35% | -11.94% | -5.08% |
| 2023 | 21.43% | 5.88% | 0.00% | 2.78% | 2.70% | -2.63% | 2.70% | -18.42% | -3.23% | 6.67% | 6.25% | 5.88% |
| 2022 | -9.30% | 10.26% | 13.95% | -14.29% | -9.52% | -21.05% | 0.00% | -3.33% | 0.00% | 3.45% | -6.67% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | 2.44% | 2.38% | -16.28% | -2.78% | 14.29% | -2.50% | 12.82% | -9.09% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12.50% | -4.44% |
| 2020 | -8.70% | -28.57% | 46.67% | 13.64% | 56.00% | 66.67% | -20.00% | -11.54% | -4.35% | -11.36% | 5.13% | |
| Avg | 0.60% | 6.90% | -4.52% | 5.94% | 9.74% | -2.79% | 13.44% | 2.77% | 6.48% | -1.43% | -3.13% | 1.74% |
ERD.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ERD.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ERD.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
ERD.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data