Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.35% | 8.77% | 3.00% | -6.25% | 5.14% | 1.60% | 3.82% | -6.70% | 0.40% | 5.50% | ||
| 2025 | -2.16% | 5.36% | 7.15% | 6.56% | 3.46% | 6.68% | -1.97% | -3.39% | -6.30% | -4.17% | 7.97% | -7.25% |
| 2024 | -0.08% | -1.29% | -3.81% | -2.49% | 0.69% | 8.30% | 4.96% | 2.96% | 9.98% | -2.33% | 4.51% | 4.55% |
| 2023 | 7.87% | -5.48% | 0.11% | 0.86% | -4.84% | 8.69% | -4.35% | -1.70% | 4.97% | 3.34% | -2.95% | -4.96% |
| 2022 | 2.17% | 0.10% | 12.94% | -3.99% | -2.31% | -4.34% | -1.59% | -3.73% | -8.15% | 2.36% | 4.66% | -2.65% |
| 2021 | 1.92% | 0.11% | 10.77% | -1.01% | 4.68% | -3.39% | 5.18% | -0.41% | -5.39% | -3.77% | -1.00% | 5.21% |
| 2020 | -2.31% | -8.20% | 12.08% | 1.40% | 4.33% | 6.27% | -1.34% | 13.84% | -5.64% | -2.23% | -2.11% | |
| Avg | 0.56% | 0.75% | 3.14% | 0.82% | 1.17% | 3.13% | 1.76% | -2.05% | 1.33% | -1.70% | 1.83% | -1.20% |
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +3.1% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -2.0% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +5.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
EMP-A.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EMP-A.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EMP-A.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EMP-A.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes