Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.10% | 22.49% | -4.80% | 25.26% | -5.30% | 1.02% | -10.36% | -9.35% | 14.58% | -1.48% | ||
| 2025 | -3.84% | -16.35% | -3.03% | -18.88% | 7.62% | 11.17% | 2.79% | 25.61% | 8.45% | 17.59% | 10.34% | 8.90% |
| 2024 | 13.05% | 14.00% | 0.05% | 2.16% | -11.74% | 4.24% | 4.74% | 2.80% | 1.77% | 14.14% | 39.43% | 11.88% |
| 2023 | 12.41% | -5.73% | -10.79% | 2.11% | -7.38% | 18.84% | 18.63% | -21.82% | -6.47% | -29.23% | 5.87% | 5.33% |
| 2022 | -6.01% | 8.75% | 2.60% | 10.61% | -11.13% | -22.68% | -2.80% | 12.14% | -10.02% | 18.72% | 27.07% | -4.26% |
| 2021 | 0.30% | 32.83% | -7.01% | 1.11% | -1.46% | 4.09% | -13.71% | 6.21% | 20.99% | 13.69% | -29.93% | 3.93% |
| 2020 | -26.88% | -19.54% | -9.95% | 5.50% | -6.88% | -3.31% | 18.08% | -21.03% | 3.68% | 44.02% | -4.65% | |
| Avg | 5.67% | 4.16% | -6.07% | 1.77% | -3.41% | 1.40% | -0.57% | 4.81% | 1.18% | 6.43% | 16.13% | 3.52% |
EFX.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +16.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.1% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +26.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +44.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
EFX.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EFX.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EFX.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes