Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -12.23% | 2.46% | -3.78% | 5.74% | -4.62% | 14.25% | 6.37% | -8.16% | -5.77% | 3.87% | ||
| 2025 | -2.22% | 9.08% | 2.88% | 7.62% | 8.30% | 6.77% | -5.95% | -4.90% | 1.02% | -8.78% | 10.57% | 5.51% |
| 2024 | 4.21% | 17.31% | -5.67% | 6.37% | -5.80% | 4.44% | 6.76% | 4.12% | 9.37% | -1.43% | 8.93% | 0.14% |
| 2023 | -6.83% | 0.20% | -1.41% | 4.20% | -1.22% | -2.79% | -5.58% | 12.02% | 1.23% | 2.24% | -3.57% | 1.92% |
| 2022 | -2.40% | -4.41% | 16.56% | 4.98% | 0.75% | -1.11% | 10.91% | 0.81% | 4.68% | 3.94% | -1.24% | -3.13% |
| 2021 | 6.64% | |||||||||||
| Avg | -3.90% | 4.93% | 1.72% | 5.78% | -0.52% | 4.31% | 2.50% | 0.78% | 2.11% | -1.01% | 3.67% | 2.22% |
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +5.8% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -3.9% with only a 20% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +9.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.7% historically, with January alone posting a 20% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -23.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
DFY.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DFY.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DFY.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DFY.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes