Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.72% | 13.10% | 22.25% | 7.64% | -4.23% | -7.02% | 20.12% | 5.32% | -0.15% | 3.93% | ||
| 2025 | -3.53% | -4.80% | 0.91% | -18.85% | 11.40% | 3.54% | 13.82% | 8.30% | 4.35% | 0.30% | 5.19% | -6.10% |
| 2024 | -1.36% | 8.59% | 15.15% | 4.43% | 0.96% | -4.67% | 3.46% | -10.17% | -8.74% | -1.02% | -0.94% | -0.93% |
| 2023 | 1.18% | -5.34% | -5.86% | -3.56% | -4.62% | 4.38% | 11.47% | 7.42% | 5.51% | -6.58% | -8.89% | -7.68% |
| 2022 | 19.21% | 7.79% | 4.74% | 13.96% | 23.45% | -16.17% | -0.37% | 0.98% | -13.51% | 29.78% | -2.47% | -1.38% |
| 2021 | -2.58% | 24.77% | 0.38% | 1.38% | 5.43% | 17.72% | -12.23% | 0.58% | 22.16% | 15.90% | 2.43% | 2.54% |
| 2020 | -14.32% | -70.78% | 77.82% | 18.81% | 5.83% | -6.14% | 3.36% | -15.75% | -15.99% | 47.71% | 20.34% | |
| Avg | 4.77% | 4.25% | -4.74% | 11.83% | 7.32% | 0.52% | 4.30% | 2.25% | -0.87% | 3.73% | 7.17% | 1.13% |
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +11.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.7% with only a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +19.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +80.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
CVE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CVE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CVE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CVE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes