Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.14% | 9.06% | 2.71% | -0.76% | 3.26% | 6.29% | 5.69% | -6.05% | -2.52% | -1.98% | ||
| 2025 | -2.58% | 4.02% | 6.20% | 4.30% | 0.65% | -1.82% | 2.39% | 0.28% | 1.83% | 0.90% | 8.77% | 1.18% |
| 2024 | -2.52% | -0.26% | 0.95% | -0.23% | 2.48% | -4.92% | 9.41% | 6.64% | 5.62% | -0.72% | 2.14% | -3.03% |
| 2023 | 0.90% | -2.03% | 5.22% | 4.01% | -5.86% | -5.87% | -4.28% | -1.13% | -10.37% | 2.23% | 5.22% | 4.90% |
| 2022 | 0.65% | -3.24% | 8.56% | 0.78% | 5.14% | -4.34% | 7.97% | -2.01% | -10.58% | 0.89% | 2.76% | -0.38% |
| 2021 | 1.67% | -3.41% | 12.02% | 4.12% | 0.97% | -1.80% | 6.25% | -1.10% | -4.42% | 5.04% | -3.14% | 6.97% |
| 2020 | -0.87% | -15.31% | 0.95% | -1.44% | 2.30% | 1.66% | -3.48% | -2.99% | -1.95% | 5.63% | -4.16% | |
| Avg | 0.21% | 0.47% | 2.91% | 1.88% | 0.74% | -1.45% | 4.15% | -0.98% | -3.35% | 1.06% | 3.56% | 0.91% |
CU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +4.2% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +11.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
CU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes