Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +3.5% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +5.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +19.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.17% | 18.00% | -8.16% | 7.92% | 4.20% | 0.10% | 1.27% | 3.11% | -5.39% | 3.56% | ||
| 2025 | 10.97% | -2.43% | -10.22% | -0.85% | 11.94% | -3.28% | -5.81% | 2.66% | -0.70% | -2.62% | 0.30% | 0.05% |
| 2024 | 3.20% | 6.51% | 3.81% | -9.57% | 0.45% | -0.52% | 7.46% | -3.38% | 3.57% | -7.14% | -0.28% | -2.65% |
| 2023 | 4.03% | -1.32% | 0.61% | 2.62% | -3.15% | 3.63% | 1.40% | -1.14% | -5.69% | -2.48% | -0.78% | 7.51% |
| 2022 | -0.04% | -1.86% | 15.82% | -8.93% | -3.96% | -0.17% | 12.30% | -2.62% | -6.02% | 10.14% | 8.44% | -8.16% |
| 2021 | -2.69% | 5.56% | 6.06% | -4.44% | 5.80% | -1.59% | -2.81% | -6.42% | -4.37% | 15.81% | -6.67% | 1.98% |
| 2020 | -5.37% | -6.39% | 1.87% | 9.08% | 0.31% | 6.67% | 4.76% | 5.22% | -1.71% | 5.38% | 5.46% | |
| Avg | 2.61% | 2.73% | 0.22% | -1.62% | 3.48% | -0.22% | 2.93% | -0.43% | -1.91% | 2.00% | 1.06% | 0.70% |
CP.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CP.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CP.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CP.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes