Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +7.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.2% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +12.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +53.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
CNQ.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CNQ.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.91% | 17.86% | 14.76% | -4.45% | -3.30% | -9.54% | 19.00% | 4.06% | -2.82% | 15.22% | ||
| 2025 | -0.52% | -7.47% | 9.86% | -10.66% | 5.33% | 4.07% | 2.48% | -0.84% | 3.68% | 0.83% | 5.39% | -0.41% |
| 2024 | -0.89% | 9.88% | 10.46% | 0.96% | 0.36% | -5.85% | 0.60% | -0.49% | -6.83% | 5.43% | 0.36% | -5.42% |
| 2023 | 8.62% | -5.58% | -1.74% | 10.39% | -11.42% | 3.10% | 7.67% | 9.02% | 1.53% | 0.25% | 2.90% | -3.05% |
| 2022 | 20.97% | 9.51% | 10.43% | 2.71% | 5.28% | -16.56% | 2.23% | 6.21% | -9.78% | 27.08% | -1.71% | -5.31% |
| 2021 | -5.56% | 20.15% | 13.28% | -3.96% | 13.54% | 7.34% | -8.51% | 1.41% | 12.11% | 13.58% | -0.68% | 3.43% |
| 2020 | -7.17% | -42.04% | 21.09% | 7.89% | -4.87% | 0.34% | 8.84% | -15.56% | -0.66% | 39.76% | 4.64% | |
| Avg | 5.26% | 5.31% | 2.14% | 2.30% | 2.53% | -3.19% | 3.40% | 4.03% | -2.52% | 7.75% | 7.67% | -1.02% |
CNQ.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CNQ.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes