Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.5% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +18.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
CM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.13% | 9.50% | -3.53% | 14.97% | -0.71% | 9.25% | 1.67% | -5.26% | 0.30% | 1.82% | ||
| 2025 | 0.68% | -4.24% | -6.56% | 7.41% | 7.45% | 4.51% | 2.45% | 7.13% | 5.74% | 4.50% | 3.98% | 3.86% |
| 2024 | -4.76% | 5.69% | 8.36% | -6.42% | 5.17% | -2.42% | 9.76% | 10.31% | 6.48% | 5.00% | 4.33% | 1.11% |
| 2023 | 10.90% | 2.73% | -6.76% | -0.89% | -1.46% | 2.64% | 2.69% | -7.82% | -0.46% | -6.71% | 14.70% | 15.34% |
| 2022 | 8.25% | 0.51% | -4.44% | -6.41% | -2.01% | -8.97% | 3.63% | -4.12% | -1.32% | 2.33% | 4.72% | -14.15% |
| 2021 | 0.24% | 7.66% | 6.10% | 3.84% | 10.12% | 1.30% | 2.81% | 0.05% | -1.87% | 6.50% | -5.14% | 4.65% |
| 2020 | -5.34% | -18.27% | 0.59% | 7.04% | 4.41% | 2.19% | 11.68% | -2.49% | -0.15% | 10.16% | 0.61% | |
| Avg | 2.74% | 2.36% | -3.59% | 1.87% | 3.66% | 1.53% | 3.60% | 1.71% | 0.91% | 1.91% | 5.46% | 1.90% |
CM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes