Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.48% | 4.17% | 6.80% | 14.65% | 2.66% | -17.33% | 5.24% | 2.13% | -2.50% | 2.95% | ||
| 2025 | -0.59% | -4.22% | 0.89% | -1.19% | 0.45% | 7.82% | 48.39% | -20.83% | -1.05% | -11.35% | -11.56% | -5.34% |
| 2024 | 10.71% | 9.36% | 11.16% | 2.50% | -11.17% | 10.57% | 30.23% | -4.76% | -0.17% | -0.67% | 0.00% | -0.84% |
| 2023 | -2.96% | 7.35% | -3.85% | 2.80% | 5.14% | -4.29% | 4.02% | 2.23% | 1.09% | -2.16% | 0.00% | 5.00% |
| 2022 | 13.37% | -8.72% | 3.84% | 0.99% | -4.02% | 7.44% | -7.79% | 9.39% | -1.12% | 0.00% | 19.36% | -9.24% |
| 2021 | 1.80% | 3.82% | 9.77% | 12.90% | -2.86% | -1.18% | 2.38% | -1.16% | -1.18% | 11.31% | 4.28% | 5.85% |
| 2020 | -1.66% | -59.83% | 3.81% | -7.71% | 4.37% | 3.81% | 0.92% | 5.64% | 3.10% | 12.52% | -0.89% | |
| Avg | 3.47% | 1.44% | -4.46% | 5.21% | -2.50% | 1.06% | 12.33% | -1.73% | 0.10% | 0.04% | 4.10% | -0.91% |
CKI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +12.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.5% with only a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +10.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -12.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
CKI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CKI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CKI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes