Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +6.2% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -4.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +10.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.4% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +50.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.42% | 19.82% | -9.30% | -3.15% | 30.75% | -8.27% | -7.21% | -4.63% | 9.39% | 3.48% | ||
| 2025 | 1.92% | -14.28% | 4.88% | 8.09% | -16.37% | 26.63% | 0.96% | 5.96% | -6.65% | 1.69% | 7.15% | 3.10% |
| 2024 | -1.12% | 4.90% | -3.96% | -3.24% | 0.85% | 1.99% | -0.09% | -18.89% | 1.35% | 4.59% | 0.98% | 0.25% |
| 2023 | -7.70% | -1.57% | 7.90% | -3.62% | -5.52% | 4.16% | 3.09% | -16.20% | -3.48% | -2.67% | 13.41% | 2.20% |
| 2022 | -7.13% | 6.11% | 14.52% | 2.62% | -2.91% | -8.05% | 9.42% | -12.41% | -7.03% | 2.74% | 16.15% | 0.50% |
| 2021 | -9.73% | 6.43% | -9.49% | 1.34% | -1.24% | 5.42% | 1.61% | 6.32% | -5.66% | 0.98% | -9.82% | 11.33% |
| 2020 | 5.33% | -18.57% | 24.42% | 13.82% | 6.67% | 8.06% | 8.77% | 4.82% | -4.15% | -14.02% | 19.98% | |
| Avg | -0.39% | 3.82% | -2.00% | 3.78% | 2.77% | 4.08% | 2.26% | -4.44% | -1.04% | 0.53% | 2.31% | 6.23% |
CGY.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CGY.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CGY.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CGY.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes