Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.3% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +18.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +29.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.86% | 11.49% | 19.20% | 10.77% | -2.18% | -15.28% | 12.30% | 5.32% | -4.14% | 19.60% | ||
| 2025 | -5.68% | -6.02% | -1.99% | -33.23% | 4.69% | 10.35% | 20.49% | 3.74% | 7.64% | 3.99% | 33.04% | -1.01% |
| 2024 | -2.51% | 1.41% | 13.53% | 4.29% | -1.76% | -4.90% | 8.23% | -6.43% | -15.36% | -2.72% | 1.27% | -6.44% |
| 2023 | 1.32% | -14.61% | -3.61% | 0.59% | -16.08% | 0.93% | 23.15% | 3.38% | 9.34% | 0.17% | -12.83% | -15.80% |
| 2022 | 20.72% | 22.67% | -5.87% | 20.55% | 6.09% | -10.33% | 10.08% | -1.02% | -14.10% | 26.50% | -7.16% | -11.50% |
| 2021 | 10.14% | 61.84% | 6.50% | 11.45% | 36.99% | 19.50% | -10.88% | 2.35% | 58.26% | 20.29% | -11.33% | 6.25% |
| 2020 | -13.89% | -72.58% | 32.35% | -6.67% | 64.29% | -10.14% | 8.06% | -31.34% | -13.04% | 65.00% | 4.55% | |
| Avg | 4.97% | 8.98% | -6.40% | 6.68% | 3.01% | 9.22% | 7.60% | 2.20% | 1.47% | 5.86% | 11.33% | -3.99% |
BTE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BTE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BTE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BTE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes