Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +28.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
BNS.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.65% | 1.65% | -6.77% | 10.79% | 4.67% | 11.44% | 0.69% | 3.17% | 2.00% | 1.35% | ||
| 2025 | -2.32% | -3.42% | -5.00% | 2.69% | 6.45% | 2.55% | 3.89% | 11.26% | 4.92% | 3.47% | 5.38% | 4.43% |
| 2024 | -0.90% | 4.68% | 6.47% | -8.48% | 2.15% | -3.01% | 4.79% | 4.34% | 9.54% | -1.29% | 11.38% | -3.33% |
| 2023 | 10.29% | -6.37% | 0.93% | 0.88% | -3.05% | 1.08% | 1.81% | -3.43% | -3.40% | -7.77% | 8.10% | 6.26% |
| 2022 | 2.24% | 0.32% | -2.45% | -8.18% | 5.45% | -11.19% | 3.81% | -6.91% | -9.53% | 1.82% | 6.58% | -5.47% |
| 2021 | 0.44% | 9.09% | 5.67% | 0.70% | 3.76% | -0.73% | -2.33% | 0.36% | -0.24% | 5.28% | -1.68% | 13.49% |
| 2020 | -2.85% | -18.16% | -1.28% | -1.13% | 1.83% | -0.51% | 2.47% | -1.86% | 1.69% | 14.18% | 8.86% | |
| Avg | 1.90% | 0.44% | -2.76% | -0.41% | 2.62% | 0.28% | 1.74% | 1.61% | 0.20% | 0.53% | 7.32% | 4.04% |
BNS.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BNS.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BNS.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes