Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +15.7% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -5.7% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +25.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.9% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -56.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.01% | -6.42% | 12.00% | -15.84% | 0.16% | -3.44% | 3.23% | 2.19% | -4.61% | 9.84% | ||
| 2025 | 5.35% | -2.98% | 21.21% | -15.72% | 15.10% | 15.75% | -9.64% | -6.52% | -8.74% | 14.14% | 20.18% | -4.57% |
| 2024 | -11.76% | 5.88% | 0.72% | 5.99% | 9.72% | -1.63% | -0.33% | -1.67% | -1.52% | -8.95% | 1.93% | 4.52% |
| 2023 | -9.54% | -1.64% | -6.52% | 7.18% | -6.70% | 4.99% | 0.51% | 5.96% | -4.96% | -1.03% | -15.14% | -8.16% |
| 2022 | -2.94% | 7.50% | 24.22% | 12.44% | 21.28% | -23.11% | 12.46% | 17.58% | -15.06% | 10.09% | 1.42% | -12.01% |
| 2021 | 22.03% | 37.50% | -11.99% | 19.54% | 13.46% | 47.07% | -9.42% | 15.29% | 29.20% | -5.14% | -2.41% | -0.31% |
| 2020 | -13.71% | -46.67% | 96.15% | -8.50% | -18.24% | 5.26% | 33.33% | -4.03% | 24.18% | 7.89% | -13.43% | |
| Avg | 0.19% | 3.73% | -1.00% | 15.68% | 6.36% | 3.06% | 0.30% | 9.45% | -1.39% | 5.55% | 2.31% | -5.66% |
BIR.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BIR.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BIR.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BIR.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes