Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +22.6% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +20.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +20.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -78.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.62% | 7.72% | -32.70% | -0.68% | 15.51% | -11.25% | -17.46% | 36.93% | -22.24% | -17.72% | ||
| 2025 | 38.89% | 0.00% | 51.43% | 13.96% | 43.71% | 12.90% | -9.39% | 37.61% | 19.48% | -10.55% | 20.52% | 8.51% |
| 2024 | -8.70% | -1.59% | 35.48% | 19.05% | 45.00% | -16.55% | 23.14% | -10.07% | 10.45% | 21.62% | -12.22% | -20.25% |
| 2023 | 10.87% | -8.82% | 30.11% | -4.96% | -19.13% | -8.60% | 15.29% | -12.24% | -18.60% | -12.86% | 21.31% | -6.76% |
| 2022 | -14.41% | 5.26% | 18.00% | -23.73% | -2.22% | -21.59% | 17.39% | -13.58% | 0.00% | 18.57% | 14.46% | -3.16% |
| 2021 | -4.24% | 14.56% | -13.81% | -2.56% | 3.95% | -8.86% | -8.33% | -1.52% | -18.46% | 11.32% | -9.32% | 3.74% |
| 2020 | -27.40% | -7.55% | 14.29% | 71.43% | 12.50% | 30.56% | 11.35% | -14.65% | -10.45% | 0.00% | 37.50% | |
| Avg | 10.84% | -1.47% | 11.57% | 2.19% | 22.61% | -5.92% | 7.31% | 6.93% | -6.29% | 2.94% | 5.79% | 3.26% |
ASM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ASM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ASM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ASM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes