Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.84% | 31.15% | -16.41% | -6.00% | 2.88% | -15.33% | -11.44% | 47.94% | -10.61% | -12.64% | ||
| 2025 | 7.34% | -1.11% | 24.30% | 13.38% | 18.97% | 2.23% | 5.23% | 23.83% | 14.14% | 1.76% | 42.15% | 12.82% |
| 2024 | -4.81% | -8.65% | 27.89% | 14.81% | 10.93% | -16.48% | 19.15% | -0.81% | 2.46% | 3.19% | -16.56% | -6.49% |
| 2023 | 37.01% | -12.20% | 3.47% | -7.91% | -13.28% | -4.20% | 4.08% | -5.42% | -1.59% | 11.65% | 25.51% | 0.92% |
| 2022 | -1.77% | 7.95% | 4.19% | -9.85% | -17.82% | -18.03% | 6.43% | -11.70% | 13.46% | -22.91% | 22.38% | -4.29% |
| 2021 | -22.02% | -9.68% | -4.34% | -4.37% | 1.85% | -2.01% | -6.56% | 3.26% | -1.94% | 6.37% | -0.70% | 6.48% |
| 2020 | 3.45% | -28.82% | 44.69% | 19.62% | -1.85% | 3.20% | -15.49% | 4.75% | -5.26% | 1.94% | 33.71% | |
| Avg | 3.60% | 1.56% | 1.47% | 6.39% | 3.31% | -7.95% | 2.87% | 5.95% | 2.95% | -0.87% | 12.45% | 7.19% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +12.5% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -8.0% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +18.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -8.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
ARIS.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ARIS.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ARIS.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ARIS.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes