Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +5.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -4.1% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.7% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +46.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.85% | 7.68% | 10.50% | 19.49% | -9.79% | 1.44% | -0.64% | -3.98% | 25.04% | -12.35% | ||
| 2025 | -11.98% | -5.93% | -24.04% | -4.72% | 16.85% | 10.12% | -8.85% | 8.85% | 17.66% | 29.81% | -11.77% | 15.35% |
| 2024 | 5.74% | 2.97% | 20.93% | -0.59% | -2.84% | 4.56% | -0.88% | 9.92% | 14.15% | 10.85% | 24.11% | -4.75% |
| 2023 | 23.05% | -9.54% | 37.30% | -7.72% | 4.26% | -4.99% | -11.32% | 4.28% | 0.86% | -10.13% | 12.94% | 15.21% |
| 2022 | 2.84% | 1.44% | -2.54% | -11.79% | -1.20% | -9.98% | -15.46% | -1.98% | -11.01% | 1.47% | 1.66% | -5.27% |
| 2021 | 0.86% | 11.52% | 6.55% | -3.96% | -2.30% | -0.29% | 13.06% | 1.28% | -6.19% | -3.70% | -11.81% | 4.77% |
| 2020 | -8.72% | -19.04% | 21.74% | -4.51% | 2.20% | -4.74% | 3.41% | -4.85% | 3.95% | 14.49% | 1.47% | |
| Avg | 5.56% | -0.08% | 4.24% | 1.78% | 0.07% | 0.44% | -4.12% | 3.11% | 5.09% | 5.37% | 4.93% | 4.46% |
ARE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ARE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ARE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ARE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes