Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +21.8% with a 60% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -7.8% with only a 40% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +17.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +13.4% historically, with January alone posting a 60% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -32.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.52% | -7.42% | -0.89% | 45.51% | -10.91% | -4.85% | -12.38% | 7.76% | -7.20% | -23.55% | ||
| 2025 | 24.44% | -8.93% | 3.92% | 50.94% | -5.00% | 28.95% | 30.61% | 13.28% | 78.62% | 22.78% | -22.01% | -12.90% |
| 2024 | -10.00% | -10.00% | 23.46% | 16.00% | 3.45% | -11.67% | 1.89% | 0.00% | -5.56% | -8.82% | -11.83% | 9.76% |
| 2023 | 39.06% | 10.11% | -6.12% | -0.43% | 2.62% | 27.66% | -29.17% | -7.06% | 1.27% | 1.25% | 11.11% | 11.11% |
| 2022 | -13.19% | -14.40% | -31.78% | -19.18% | -27.97% | -5.88% | -30.00% | 32.14% | -13.51% | -14.06% | 7.27% | 8.47% |
| Avg | 21.77% | -6.13% | -2.28% | 18.57% | -7.56% | 6.84% | -7.81% | 9.22% | 10.72% | 0.29% | -3.86% | 4.11% |
ARA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ARA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ARA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ARA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes