Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +3.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -5.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.20% | 4.08% | -2.12% | 6.23% | -2.15% | 2.01% | -3.95% | -0.64% | 2.46% | -2.52% | ||
| 2025 | -0.03% | -0.39% | -0.30% | 2.43% | 4.25% | 3.75% | 0.33% | 1.90% | 1.28% | -2.84% | 2.03% | 2.17% |
| 2024 | 4.79% | 3.05% | 3.17% | -3.80% | -1.58% | -0.13% | 5.87% | 3.89% | -0.39% | -2.94% | 3.77% | -3.28% |
| 2023 | 7.14% | 7.67% | -1.35% | -0.45% | -6.12% | 2.50% | 2.98% | -3.62% | -3.68% | -6.24% | 3.72% | 4.91% |
| 2022 | 1.76% | 0.19% | 0.95% | -8.90% | 3.62% | -14.43% | 4.84% | 1.91% | -9.79% | 0.31% | 5.22% | -2.72% |
| 2021 | -1.56% | 4.88% | 1.82% | 5.77% | 3.60% | 3.14% | 0.11% | 0.59% | -0.88% | 1.43% | -6.02% | 4.78% |
| 2020 | -5.19% | -32.40% | 10.80% | 12.44% | -0.66% | -6.04% | 3.39% | 1.53% | -0.14% | 15.51% | 3.37% | |
| Avg | 1.98% | 2.04% | -4.32% | 1.73% | 2.01% | -0.55% | 0.59% | 1.06% | -1.35% | -1.74% | 4.04% | 1.54% |
AI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes