Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +8.5% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -5.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +11.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +11.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -31.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
AGI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.79% | 46.51% | -16.22% | -12.43% | 4.35% | -23.88% | -9.40% | 30.34% | -9.18% | -8.86% | ||
| 2025 | 14.59% | 8.79% | 16.42% | 2.50% | -9.82% | 2.01% | -7.04% | 24.26% | 16.03% | -10.86% | 22.02% | 0.53% |
| 2024 | -8.64% | -1.66% | 24.97% | 1.40% | 12.54% | -5.69% | 9.65% | 10.41% | 3.87% | 4.38% | -5.40% | -0.21% |
| 2023 | 7.23% | -5.25% | 18.90% | 6.12% | -4.28% | -5.66% | 3.23% | 6.69% | -11.67% | 12.08% | 17.12% | -11.23% |
| 2022 | -10.89% | 7.73% | 12.77% | -4.95% | -5.41% | -4.01% | 12.07% | -6.42% | 8.50% | 4.98% | 21.30% | 5.25% |
| 2021 | -7.73% | -12.09% | 9.21% | 0.31% | 11.27% | -13.35% | 7.08% | -1.78% | -8.24% | 0.77% | 6.43% | -0.07% |
| 2020 | -6.47% | -9.12% | 58.56% | -0.54% | 13.76% | 11.93% | -3.67% | -13.94% | 3.75% | -11.67% | 3.68% | |
| Avg | -1.71% | 5.37% | 8.13% | 7.36% | 1.16% | -5.26% | 3.93% | 8.55% | -2.09% | 2.52% | 8.30% | -0.34% |
AGI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AGI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AGI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes