Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +3.6% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +38.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.86% | 10.60% | 4.98% | 0.03% | 0.62% | 8.94% | 7.71% | -6.78% | -0.25% | 10.42% | ||
| 2025 | -2.84% | 2.91% | 6.46% | 3.41% | 0.30% | -1.36% | -1.18% | 0.22% | 1.20% | 4.90% | 5.37% | 2.18% |
| 2024 | -2.77% | 0.16% | 1.45% | -0.37% | 6.50% | -1.39% | 9.91% | 6.16% | 6.48% | 0.88% | 1.70% | -2.23% |
| 2023 | -0.09% | -0.07% | 3.55% | 3.35% | -5.74% | -5.49% | -4.56% | -0.90% | -6.58% | 3.34% | 4.22% | 5.71% |
| 2022 | 0.28% | -2.78% | 4.28% | 6.62% | 0.24% | -2.90% | 7.32% | -0.78% | -8.71% | -0.35% | 2.93% | -1.60% |
| 2021 | 0.33% | 1.39% | 13.73% | 1.13% | 3.41% | 1.80% | 2.55% | -5.83% | -3.27% | 3.37% | -0.88% | 3.69% |
| 2020 | -2.98% | -21.52% | 0.31% | -0.72% | 4.94% | 3.50% | -4.65% | -2.09% | -3.64% | 5.26% | -5.48% | |
| Avg | -0.04% | 1.32% | 1.85% | 2.07% | 0.66% | 0.65% | 3.61% | -1.80% | -1.89% | 1.42% | 3.10% | 0.38% |
ACO-X.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ACO-X.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ACO-X.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ACO-X.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes