Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +6.2% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -2.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +9.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
ABX.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.10% | 12.13% | -17.86% | -6.12% | 10.83% | -11.46% | -1.34% | 21.28% | -6.90% | -7.79% | ||
| 2025 | 6.59% | 8.61% | 8.89% | -5.91% | 0.64% | 7.71% | 3.17% | 25.95% | 24.79% | 0.72% | 27.46% | 2.33% |
| 2024 | -12.28% | -5.11% | 13.85% | 1.55% | 2.22% | -1.85% | 12.09% | 6.90% | -1.14% | 0.04% | -8.36% | -9.09% |
| 2023 | 12.11% | -14.72% | 13.79% | 2.67% | -10.42% | -2.31% | 1.65% | -3.27% | -9.91% | 12.27% | 8.25% | 0.42% |
| 2022 | 1.16% | 18.28% | 7.02% | -6.56% | -8.70% | -12.16% | -11.34% | -2.09% | 9.79% | -4.30% | 8.17% | 5.74% |
| 2021 | -1.52% | -16.46% | 4.97% | 5.05% | 10.39% | -10.47% | 5.93% | -5.56% | -9.82% | -0.70% | 8.22% | -0.95% |
| 2020 | 4.79% | 1.02% | 38.55% | -7.32% | 10.33% | 5.97% | 0.10% | -3.21% | -4.76% | -15.99% | -2.72% | |
| Avg | 1.69% | 1.07% | 4.52% | 4.18% | -0.34% | -2.89% | 2.31% | 6.19% | 0.52% | 0.54% | 4.62% | -0.71% |
ABX.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ABX.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ABX.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes