Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 3Y.
Jan averages +20.0% with a 67% win rate across 3 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -5.4% with only a 33% win rate across 3 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +25.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +25.5% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 3Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -40.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.63% | 0.49% | -0.14% | -5.29% | -14.54% | -3.44% | -24.51% | 28.46% | -8.78% | -7.35% | ||
| 2025 | 33.43% | 3.52% | 4.03% | 13.27% | 18.08% | -7.02% | -2.84% | 8.39% | 26.34% | -12.25% | 38.05% | 6.75% |
| 2024 | -9.97% | -6.33% | 14.86% | 8.82% | -16.76% | -4.55% | 11.22% | -6.42% | 5.23% | 14.91% | -7.30% | -0.58% |
| 2023 | -7.17% | -14.77% | -6.40% | |||||||||
| Avg | 20.03% | -0.77% | 6.25% | 5.60% | -4.41% | -5.00% | -5.38% | 10.14% | 7.59% | -1.51% | 5.33% | -0.08% |
AAUC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
3 years of data
AAUC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 3 years
AAUC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2023 to 2026
AAUC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes