Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.25% | -0.91% | -5.30% | 10.04% | 5.25% | -1.28% | -0.19% | 2.62% | -0.54% | -0.44% | ||
| 2025 | 2.69% | -1.44% | -5.77% | -1.00% | 6.13% | 4.89% | 2.23% | 1.78% | 3.54% | 2.29% | 0.00% | -0.13% |
| 2024 | 1.58% | 5.36% | 3.12% | -4.19% | 4.96% | 3.43% | 1.14% | 2.25% | 1.85% | -0.97% | 5.95% | -2.75% |
| 2023 | 6.10% | -2.36% | 3.28% | 1.70% | 0.41% | 6.22% | 3.15% | -1.53% | -4.97% | -2.21% | 8.80% | 4.31% |
| 2022 | -5.26% | -2.71% | 3.35% | -8.96% | 0.36% | -8.61% | 9.15% | -4.10% | -9.76% | 8.09% | 5.33% | -5.70% |
| 2021 | -1.06% | 2.73% | 4.41% | 5.06% | 0.42% | 2.61% | 2.45% | 2.98% | -4.74% | 6.87% | -0.67% | 1.36% |
| 2020 | -8.05% | -13.65% | 12.40% | 4.82% | 1.96% | 5.65% | 6.58% | -3.96% | -2.47% | 10.57% | 3.60% | |
| Avg | 0.88% | -1.05% | -1.51% | 2.15% | 3.19% | 1.32% | 3.37% | 1.51% | -2.66% | 1.93% | 5.00% | 0.12% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.0% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +0.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
XSP.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
XSP.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
XSP.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XSP.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes