Seasonality
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ZBRA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +10.7% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -8.4% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +53.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.23% | -4.69% | -6.64% | 8.22% | 7.68% | 8.06% | 11.61% | 27.98% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.48% | -19.62% | -10.31% | -11.41% | 15.76% | 6.42% | 9.94% | -6.47% | -6.29% | -9.39% | -6.13% | -3.93% |
| 2024 | -12.36% | 16.67% | 7.86% | 4.35% | -0.71% | -1.09% | 13.68% | -1.65% | 7.22% | 3.15% | 6.55% | -5.11% |
| 2023 | 23.31% | -5.04% | 5.91% | -9.42% | -8.84% | 12.67% | 4.10% | -10.70% | -13.99% | -11.46% | 13.15% | 15.34% |
| 2022 | -14.46% | -18.81% | 0.09% | -10.65% | -8.51% | -13.08% | 21.68% | -15.67% | -13.14% | 8.10% | -4.57% | -5.13% |
| 2021 | 0.91% | 28.78% | -2.85% | 0.53% | 1.91% | 6.53% | 4.34% | 6.28% | -12.22% | 3.60% | 10.27% | 1.09% |
| 2020 | -11.74% | -12.97% | 25.09% | 13.79% | -2.06% | 9.69% | 2.06% | -11.89% | 12.35% | 33.42% | 1.56% | |
| Avg | -0.72% | -2.06% | -2.70% | 0.96% | 3.01% | 2.49% | 10.72% | -4.36% | -8.38% | 1.06% | 8.78% | 0.64% |
ZBRA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ZBRA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ZBRA Distribution of Daily % Changes