Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +9.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.8% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +14.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +14.5% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.50% | 8.57% | 11.25% | -9.04% | -5.24% | -5.88% | 13.69% | 3.00% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.69% | 5.14% | 6.83% | -11.18% | -2.26% | 5.38% | 3.56% | 3.33% | -1.35% | 1.43% | 2.25% | 3.81% |
| 2024 | 2.83% | 2.61% | 11.21% | 1.75% | -0.05% | -1.82% | 3.01% | 0.25% | -0.61% | -0.38% | 1.84% | -8.81% |
| 2023 | 5.18% | -4.53% | -0.23% | 7.92% | -12.91% | 4.96% | -0.01% | 4.53% | 5.75% | -9.98% | -2.05% | -2.69% |
| 2022 | 24.14% | 4.38% | 5.32% | 3.22% | 13.76% | -10.79% | 13.18% | -0.42% | -8.66% | 26.92% | 1.29% | -0.93% |
| 2021 | 8.78% | 23.31% | 2.69% | 2.53% | 3.46% | 8.07% | -8.73% | -3.86% | 7.89% | 9.61% | -5.93% | 2.26% |
| 2020 | -16.00% | -26.19% | 22.39% | -0.25% | -1.65% | -5.90% | -3.21% | -14.05% | -4.98% | 19.71% | 8.10% | |
| Avg | 9.62% | 3.35% | 1.55% | 2.51% | -0.50% | -0.25% | 2.69% | 0.10% | -1.84% | 3.77% | 2.85% | 0.29% |
XOM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
XOM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
XOM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XOM Distribution of Daily % Changes