Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.7% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
WY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.82% | -4.85% | 0.46% | 0.37% | -0.04% | -1.49% | 4.55% | -1.88% | ||||
| 2025 | 8.77% | -1.70% | -2.04% | -11.51% | 0.81% | -0.85% | -2.49% | 4.12% | -4.17% | -7.22% | -2.52% | 6.66% |
| 2024 | -5.75% | 5.36% | 5.06% | -15.98% | 0.21% | -5.46% | 11.87% | -3.36% | 11.05% | -7.97% | 4.17% | -12.74% |
| 2023 | 11.06% | -6.78% | -3.00% | -0.73% | -4.18% | 17.70% | 1.64% | -3.29% | -6.38% | -6.43% | 9.93% | 10.91% |
| 2022 | -1.82% | -0.38% | -2.07% | 8.76% | -4.12% | -15.80% | 9.66% | -5.95% | -15.95% | 8.30% | 5.75% | -4.70% |
| 2021 | -6.98% | 8.59% | 5.64% | 8.90% | -2.09% | -8.92% | -2.00% | 6.73% | -0.73% | 1.85% | 5.29% | 9.99% |
| 2020 | -10.26% | -33.97% | 29.03% | -7.68% | 11.24% | 23.82% | 8.99% | -5.91% | -4.31% | 6.41% | 16.14% | |
| Avg | 2.35% | -1.43% | -4.28% | 2.69% | -2.44% | -0.51% | 6.72% | 1.21% | -3.68% | -2.63% | 4.84% | 4.38% |
WY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
WY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
WY Distribution of Daily % Changes