Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.8% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.3% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +10.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +28.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -15.92% | 10.05% | -1.45% | 18.82% | 8.47% | 11.21% | -4.96% | 2.48% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.27% | -31.93% | -3.64% | -5.53% | -0.21% | 3.77% | 9.44% | 3.21% | 6.23% | 7.52% | -1.63% | -0.76% |
| 2024 | 6.00% | -3.93% | 10.42% | -9.61% | -7.29% | -0.61% | -6.99% | 2.44% | -4.29% | 2.59% | 5.83% | 0.58% |
| 2023 | 12.93% | 19.36% | 9.29% | 4.32% | -7.37% | 14.30% | -3.72% | 10.56% | -7.79% | -15.17% | 10.27% | 0.39% |
| 2022 | -16.12% | -1.56% | 6.10% | -23.25% | -1.49% | -2.58% | 13.69% | -13.64% | -17.06% | -6.49% | 2.07% | 0.29% |
| 2021 | 5.77% | -6.29% | 0.40% | 16.65% | 5.78% | 3.34% | 14.71% | 9.69% | -6.00% | 1.26% | 3.02% | 5.95% |
| 2020 | -3.46% | 1.12% | 24.43% | 14.15% | 5.15% | 18.43% | 5.61% | -3.19% | -1.03% | 1.19% | 2.96% | |
| Avg | -0.51% | -2.54% | 3.18% | 3.69% | 1.72% | 4.94% | 5.80% | 2.98% | -5.35% | -1.89% | 3.46% | 1.57% |
WST - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
WST - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
WST Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
WST Distribution of Daily % Changes