Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +11.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -1.7% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +13.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +16.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.95% | 0.49% | -11.34% | -0.22% | 12.34% | 14.51% | -1.58% | 5.65% | ||||
| 2025 | 14.47% | -7.94% | -18.75% | -1.83% | 4.72% | 1.00% | 14.94% | 0.61% | 3.86% | -0.22% | -7.37% | -0.79% |
| 2024 | -3.73% | 21.79% | 34.82% | -9.32% | 2.25% | -3.70% | 9.98% | -13.16% | 15.33% | -13.07% | 28.25% | 7.65% |
| 2023 | 18.16% | -7.43% | -2.61% | 0.23% | -6.22% | 10.25% | 11.55% | 1.85% | 10.06% | -2.77% | 24.83% | 7.59% |
| 2022 | -4.62% | -9.77% | 0.10% | -9.52% | -1.96% | -13.27% | 30.91% | 3.00% | -20.77% | 5.79% | -5.60% | -1.69% |
| 2021 | 27.11% | 1.84% | 36.49% | -4.39% | -0.71% | -5.83% | -4.63% | 23.07% | -5.02% | 5.14% | 4.91% | -13.20% |
| 2020 | -10.97% | -31.85% | 46.77% | 34.56% | -1.44% | 6.82% | 0.73% | 3.05% | 1.40% | 20.02% | -6.97% | |
| Avg | 11.06% | -1.71% | 0.98% | 3.10% | 6.42% | 0.21% | 9.71% | 2.68% | 1.08% | -0.62% | 10.84% | -1.23% |
WSM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
WSM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
WSM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
WSM Distribution of Daily % Changes