Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.20% | 4.68% | -7.56% | 0.83% | -4.92% | 12.00% | 2.85% | -2.80% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.53% | 7.22% | 12.95% | 0.74% | 4.18% | -0.84% | -6.34% | 4.19% | 7.01% | -6.89% | 8.90% | -8.30% |
| 2024 | 15.78% | 2.10% | 5.93% | -12.97% | 5.27% | -2.27% | 5.24% | 8.29% | -4.43% | 0.78% | 12.91% | -8.47% |
| 2023 | -2.68% | -5.63% | -5.79% | -5.36% | -5.50% | 7.17% | 3.58% | 0.28% | 3.61% | 6.19% | 7.61% | -1.68% |
| 2022 | 2.56% | 6.86% | 10.78% | -0.15% | 6.98% | -3.15% | -8.39% | 3.63% | -0.18% | 15.18% | 2.55% | -4.73% |
| 2021 | -6.44% | 11.57% | 8.86% | 5.80% | -2.17% | -3.74% | -1.69% | 2.92% | -2.65% | 8.77% | -3.72% | 9.09% |
| 2020 | -8.69% | -22.15% | 3.51% | 7.31% | -0.94% | 7.79% | 0.49% | -1.26% | -1.68% | 8.33% | 2.17% | |
| Avg | 1.26% | 2.59% | 0.43% | -1.09% | 1.59% | 1.18% | 0.43% | 3.30% | 0.35% | 3.72% | 6.10% | -1.99% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -2.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -11.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
WRB - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
WRB - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
WRB Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
WRB Distribution of Daily % Changes